For months, the conversation around real estate has largely been about buyers having more choice and sellers having to adjust expectations.

But something interesting is happening.

The number of homes coming onto the market has dropped significantly.

In July, GTA new listings were down 17.8% from a year earlier, while home sales were down just 0.9%. At the same time, the average selling price was $1,003,956, down 4.5% year-over-year.

So, what does that mean?

It means the market isn't simply a story of “prices are down, therefore buyers are winning.”

The supply side of the equation matters too.

Why Sellers Are Holding Back

Some homeowners may be choosing to wait rather than list into a market where they don't feel they'll get the price they want.

And that creates an interesting cycle.

Fewer sellers → fewer new listings → less choice for buyers → potentially more competition for homes that are particularly desirable.

But here's the important part:

This doesn't mean every home suddenly has a bidding war waiting for it.

Location, property type, condition and price still matter enormously.

A well-priced home in a desirable neighbourhood can behave very differently from a home that needs work or is priced above what today's buyers are willing to pay.

So, Who Has the Advantage?

Buyers: You may still have negotiating power, but the window of choice can vary considerably depending on what you're looking for.

Sellers: You can't assume that a changing market means you can price aggressively. Today's buyers are informed and selective.

Homeowners: You don't have to be buying or selling to pay attention. The market you're sitting in today can influence your options tomorrow.

The Bigger Question

Instead of asking:

“Is it a buyer's market or a seller's market?”

A better question might be:

“What's happening with the specific type of property I'm interested in?”

Because the GTA isn't one market.

It's thousands of individual neighbourhoods, property types and price ranges behaving differently.

💡 Our Take

The supply shift is something worth watching as we head toward fall.

If fewer homeowners list while buyer demand remains relatively steady, the balance could begin to change.

But don't make a decision based on a headline.

Look at the numbers that actually matter to you.

Your neighbourhood.

Your property type.

Your price range.

Your timeline.

Curious what the supply shift looks like where you live?

Reply to this email with your neighbourhood and whether you're buying, selling or simply curious, and we'll point you in the right direction.